The most recent edition of the Ecological Threat Report was released on Wednesday (Oct. 19) by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) (ETR).
According to the report’s assessment of which nations are most prone to violence, civil upheaval, and relocation brought on by ecological deterioration, African nations were particularly at danger.
A large portion of sub-Saharan Africa will be unsustainable by 2050, according to projections. High levels of air pollution, inadequate sanitation, high homicide rates, significant ecological challenges, and rapid population expansion are the main causes of this unsustainability.
The 27 “hotspot” countries, which face the highest ecological challenges and have the least resilient societies, are highlighted in the 77-page research. 23 of the 27 are in MENA and sub-Saharan Africa.
food anxiety
Severe food insecurity today affects social cohesion, public health, and economic development in 41 nations. 830 million people who live in these nations are at risk, with 89% of them in sub-Saharan Africa and 49 million in the Middle East and North Africa.
People who experience extreme food insecurity have gone without food for a day or more, according to the World Health Organization.
It is also concerning how many people are undernourished. Over 750 million people are now included in the affected population, a 35% increase from 2021. A nutritional condition is undernutrition. This includes underweight, stunting, and wasting (low weight for height) (low weight-for-age).
Due to escalating ecological degradation, rising inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine war, undernutrition is predicted to get worse.
Additionally, more than 1.4 billion people in 83 countries—more than half of which are in Africa—now experience serious water stress.
Mass migration and natural disasters
The second region with the greatest impact from natural disasters is Sub-Saharan Africa.
Communities will have a difficult time recovering before the next natural disaster because they happen more frequently now. Disasters brought on by climate change frequently trigger forced mass migration, as has already been noted.
Syria, Ethiopia, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, and South Sudan saw the highest rates of internal displacement as a result of armed conflict and natural catastrophes in 2021.
The first region most impacted by natural disasters is the Asia-Pacific. Other areas that have been particularly impacted include the Caribbean and Central America. The number of weather, climate, and water-related disasters has increased by a factor of five over the past 50 years, according to the most recent multi-agency climate study.
Climate worry
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia rank conflict, terrorism, crime, violence, and livelihoods as being of higher worry than climate change, which is generally the cause for the least concern in regions exposed to the greatest levels of ecological damage.
Since 2019, global concern over climate change has decreased by 1.5% to 48.7%.
To address climate injustice, several African nations are looking to the 27th session of the UN Climate Change Conference, which is scheduled to begin in Sharm el-Sheikh in early November.
Steve Killelea, the founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) also views this event as a chance to seize in order to bring about changes.
“As we approach COP27, this report is a timely reminder that the costs of many of the existing ecological challenges will only be amplified by climate change”, he said.
“The world’s current approach to the countries suffering the worst climate-related issues is not working; ecological threats are increasing and have systemic causes that require systemic solutions”, Killelea pleaded.
To prevent future ecological degradation, forced migration, and violence, the IEP executive chairman urged “governments and international agencies” to “invest in creating long-term resilience.”
Steve Killelea also discusses development initiatives for SMEs: “Microbusinesses that gather water, boost agriculture, and engage in value-added manufacturing should be the main emphasis of development programs. The lives of those who are suffering the most will be improved by this.”
Megacities have poor coping mechanisms
There are currently 33 megacities, and just two of them—Lagos (Nigeria) and Kinshasa—are found on the continent (DRC).
By the year 2050, 14 cities are anticipated to be megacities, with four African cities joining the list.
Specifically, Nairobi (Kenya), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Khartoum (Sudan), and Luanda (Angola). As time goes on, these extremely huge cities with populations over 10 million will encounter difficulties.
The majority of today’s megacities are located in unstable nations. They face significant ecological risks, the fastest rates of population increase, the worst sanitation, and the highest levels of both organized and petty criminality (e.g. pervasive air pollution).
However, to cope with these challenges most of the poorer megacities “lack the financial capacity and governance”, the report found.
Kinshasa, Nairobi, and Lagos are the cities most likely to experience severe hardships on the continent.
Within the next 30 years, it is expected that the populations of Dar es Salaam and Nairobi will increase by more than 100%, while those of Kinshasa, Lagos, and Khartoum are anticipated to see population growth of more than 80%.
A “precarious relationship with unsustainability” is highlighted by their rapid population expansion and the lack of a suitable framework to handle current problems. They “will struggle to manage ecological hazards” due to poor coping skills.
