Many African states have formally chosen no side since Russia’s invasion. But, even if the war’s effects on food security haven’t changed, that may now be changing. Zimbabwe’s Harare – Last Saturday, a number of Chinese naval destroyers, a large Russian warship outfitted with a potent Zircon hypersonic missile, and other frigates and supply ships anchored off the coast of South Africa.
At scheduled tri-nation naval drills off the coast of Durban in the east of the country, the entourage of Russian and Chinese maritime firepower, which could easily bring a lightly prepared African nation’s navy to its knees militarily, would be spending days on show.
It would have been difficult to have predicted a year ago that South Africa, which has openly taken a “neutral” posture on the conflict in Ukraine, would choose to hold such an event with Russia as the latter attacked its neighbor.
In a March 2018 interview with Bloomberg, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa stated that “[the position of] neutrality can cost.” And fortunately, we’re not the only ones going through this; many others have made the same decision. We can communicate with both sides, which is a good thing in all of this.
The same ideas were held by the political establishment in Africa.
President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, who has been in power since 1986, declared in July of last year that his country “doesn’t believe in becoming enemies of somebody’s opponent” after welcoming Sergey Lavrov, who was touring Africa to drum up support for the conflict in Ukraine.
It had a similar beat on a continental scale.
17 African nations were among the 35 that did not participate in the voting on a significant UNGA resolution last March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
President of Senegal and former AU chairman Macky Sall stated, “We do not want to be aligned on this dispute; we plainly want peace.”
A year has passed, and it appears that many African countries are still keeping their neutral stance in the face of no imminent end to the war.
32 nations, including 15 from Africa, voted no during a UNGA resolution last week that demanded Russia withdraw its soldiers from Ukraine and put an end to the war.
One of the abstentions was South Africa, which is participating in joint naval exercises with Russia during the same week as the war’s anniversary.
Senior consultant for Southern Africa for the International Crisis Group, Piers Pigou, stated that the continent’s position on neutrality has not changed.
Of course, the optics of [South Africa’s naval actions at this time] are the issue. It’s incredible that they weren’t aware of how terrible the timing of this was at some point in the past. Nevertheless, they don’t appear to give it any thought, Pigou said Al Jazeera.
It indicates that they are sticking to a stance that, despite their claims to the contrary, leaves many people with the impression that they are partisan. And it’s becoming clear that optics are crucial.
In response to questions regarding South Africa’s naval exercises with Russia, Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, stated last month that “the United States has concerns about any government… practicing with Russia as Putin pursues a terrible war against Ukraine.”
This occurred at the same time that the US announced plans to draft legislation requiring Washington to sanction African nations that support what it views as Russian “malign” actions on the continent.
Its name is the Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act, and it aims to oppose what the US sees as Moscow and its proxies’ hostile influence on the continent. It is anticipated to become law soon.
The legislation, which Pigou described as “the big pebble in the shoe at the moment,” is “creating a little bit of controversy with the potential to punish countries trading with Russia.”
But, Moscow seems to be doing well on the African continent, where Washington has diplomatic difficulties.
On a series of journeys to the continent last year, foreign minister Lavrov met the leaders of Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Eritrea, South Africa, Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia. He was able to enchant them diplomatically.
Three of the four nations he originally visited in July—Congo, Ethiopia, and Uganda—decided to abstain from voting at the UNGA meeting in October to denounce Russia’s intentions to annexe areas of Ukraine.
The Wagner group, a mercenary organization connected to Moscow, is involved in the fighting in Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Mali, while some Western military forces, like the French army in the Sahel, have decided to withdraw. Outside of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has also been making significant inroads in other regions of Africa, such as Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Mali.
Several African nations have cultivated ties with significant Russian allies. For instance, last month, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukanhesko visited Zimbabwe, which has tense relations with the West due to Robert Mugabe’s policy of land confiscation and redistribution to the Black majority.
The Soviet Union, which supported numerous pro-independence movements in Africa during a period of Western political domination, is where Russia’s historical ties to the continent begin.
The liberation movement in South Africa that later evolved into the ruling African National Party (ANC) following democracy in 1994 received funds and paramilitary training from the Soviet Union under apartheid. It aided the African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in Zimbabwe during its struggle against the colonial Rhodesian government from the 1960s until the country’s independence in 1980. Moreover, during the height of the Cold War in 1975, Angola’s Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA) received military assistance from it from the 1960s until its independence from Portugal.
According to Stephen Chan, a professor of world politics at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London, “loyalty to Russia has been strong based on its assistance, as the Soviet Union, throughout the war for independence.” “Thus, adopting a neutral stance is, in a sense, attempting to have it both ways,”
Chan argued that African nations must take a position on the Ukrainian conflict rather than giving the impression that they are siding with both Russia’s allies and its adversaries.
Chan stated that the conflict in Ukraine highlighted African countries’ inability to successfully negotiate a foreign political system diplomatically.
He told Al Jazeera that “this has undoubtedly led to a triangular war for dominance in Africa, with the West only now considering seriously the threats posed by both Russia and China.”
Either Russia or the US was the only option throughout both the bipolar political system, which saw Russia and the US dominate, and the unipolar political order that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union and made the US the only superpower. But now, there are just three options: the US, Russia, and China.
Africa will find it more and more difficult to chart a route that successfully navigates between the three superpowers, Chan predicted.
Ronald Chipaike, a lecturer in peace and governance at the Bindura University in Zimbabwe, shares this opinion.
According to him, the continent has only reaped “fringe” benefits from remaining neutral in the conflict, such as avoiding “direct confrontation with either the West or Russia.” He continued, “Africa hasn’t benefited much from its neutrality in the conflict, just as it didn’t benefit much during the Cold War.”
Even though the AU claims to be impartial, when Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made diplomatic overtures last April for a video conference with African leaders via the AU to persuade them to support Ukraine, the request was repeatedly postponed and finally materialized in June, 10 weeks after his initial request.
Only four heads of state came even then; the others sent messengers.
According to Chipaike, “this shows that African countries seem to have a soft spot for Russia and it calls into doubt the whole neutrality issue.”
On the ground, the supply systems that have been long disrupted by the war have yet to return to normal despite shifting political and diplomatic posturing by leaders. Due to its extensive reliance on imports, Africa is suffering the most from both food shortages and inflation.
Prices for wheat in Africa, which imports 50% of its supply from Russia and Ukraine, increased by 71% in March.
The continent is still far from returning to normal, despite the fact that the food situation has slightly improved as more grains are leaving Black Sea ports and entering African nations.
Since costs have increased significantly, many Africans’ purchasing power has decreased.
Due to global supply limits, the conflict in Ukraine, COVID-19, and climate change, 16 of the 24 nations that the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) have classified as hunger hotspots need immediate food assistance.
In addition, a poor rice season last year would have an impact on Africa, according to a joint statement released in early February by the FAO, WFP, and the International Monetary Fund.
According to the African Development Bank, 283 million people in Africa were “suffering from hunger” before the war.
Africa has had to deal with the conflict’s racial implications in addition to hunger.
African students in Ukraine claimed several instances of racial abuse and discrimination at the borders as they tried to flee for safety into neighboring countries alongside European migrants, who were typically welcomed with open arms, when the war first broke out.
On the opposing side of the front lines, Black Africans’ circumstances are unstable in a variety of ways.
A Zambian student who was fighting for Russia in Ukraine last year was slain there.
The Russian mercenary company Wagner sent Lemekhani Nyirenda, a student with no prior combat experience, to the front lines. Nyirenda, who was serving a nine-year sentence in a Russian jail for a drug offense, is still unknown how he wound up in Ukraine, although Russian authorities claim he was pardoned before enlisting in the conflict.
After being recruited from a Russian prison where he was serving a seven-year term for a drug offense, another Tanzanian student named Nemes Tarimo also perished in Ukraine.
Tanzania did not cast a vote in the most recent UNGA session on Thursday, the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Zambia joined 140 other nations in supporting the resolution calling for the end of the war.
Nevertheless, despite pressure from the West and criticism over the timing, the naval exercises with Russia went on as scheduled in South Africa, which has continued to abstain from UN votes on the war due to its commitment to neutrality.
The South African National Defence Force’s chief of joint operations, Lieutenant-General Siphiwe Sangweni, defended the choice to conduct the drills by saying, “There is a distinction between military and politics.”
Undoubtedly, there will be other nations who disagree with the way we have handled this, he acknowledged, but “all nations are sovereign states and have a right to handle things [as] they see fit.”
