Tunisia’s incumbent President Kais Saied is poised to secure a decisive victory in the presidential election, garnering 89.2% of the vote, despite a notably low turnout, as revealed by exit polls aired on national television following the closing of the polls.
At 66 years old, Saied is anticipated to win by a significant margin, significantly outpacing his rivals—imprisoned competitor Ayachi Zammel, who is projected to receive 6.9% of the vote, and Zouhair Maghzaoui, with 3.9%, according to the independent polling organization Sigma Conseil.
Three years after Saied’s extensive power grab, human rights advocates express concern that his re-election will further solidify his control in Tunisia, the sole democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring movements.
Since the ousting of long-time dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, Tunisia has been proud of its role as a catalyst for regional revolts against authoritarianism. However, the country’s trajectory changed dramatically following Saied’s election in 2019.
The Tunisian electoral board (ISIE) reported that approximately 9.7 million citizens were eligible to vote in a nation with a population of around 12 million. The voter turnout was only 27.7%, with more than 58% of participants being male and 65% falling within the 36 to 60 age range.
Hatem Nafti, a political commentator and author, noted, “The vote’s legitimacy is undoubtedly compromised, as candidates who could have challenged Saied were systematically excluded.” The ISIE disqualified 14 candidates from the election, citing a lack of endorsements and other technicalities.
During a visit to his campaign office in the capital, Saied cautioned against “foreign interference” and committed to “building our country while eliminating corruption and conspirators.” He expressed that the exit poll results closely reflect reality, stating, “We will await the official results.”
The electoral board is set to release preliminary results on Monday. This year’s turnout figure is a stark decline from 45% in 2019, marking the lowest participation in a presidential election since the 2011 revolution.
According to North Africa analyst Pierre Vermeren, “The democratic legitimacy of this vote is indeed weak, but there is no minimum threshold for participation,” noting that many Tunisians appeared indifferent to the process.
Concerned about potential electoral fraud, 40-year-old Hosni Abidi expressed, “I don’t want others making choices for me. I want to cast my vote for my chosen candidate.”
Saied cast his ballot alongside his wife in the affluent Ennasr neighborhood, north of Tunis. Following the announcement of the exit polls, hundreds of supporters took to the streets in celebration of his anticipated win. Oumayma Dhouib, 25, commented, “I am convinced by his ideas and policies.”
Saied’s consolidation of power in 2021, which included constitutional revisions and a crackdown on dissent, has drawn criticism domestically and internationally. Human Rights Watch has reported that over 170 individuals are currently detained in Tunisia for political reasons or for exercising their basic rights.
Zammel, Saied’s primary opponent, faces more than 14 years in prison on charges of forging endorsement signatures to qualify for the election. Other imprisoned figures include Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamist opposition party Ennahdha, and Abir Moussi, head of the Free Destourian Party, which critics claim seeks to restore the regime ousted in 2011.
In a recent speech, Saied called for a “massive turnout” to usher in an era of “reconstruction,” alleging a “long war against conspiratorial forces linked to foreign circles” that he claims have infiltrated public services and disrupted projects during his administration.
Many fear that Saied’s new mandate could exacerbate the nation’s socioeconomic challenges and accelerate its authoritarian drift. Wajd Harrar, a 22-year-old student, reflected on her voting experience, stating, “In 2019, I was too young to vote, and people chose a bad president. This time, I will vote for the least bad candidate.”
Protests erupted in the capital on Friday, with demonstrators holding signs denouncing Saied as a “Pharaoh manipulating the law.”
