As the United States and China continue to jostle for global economic dominance, Africa has become one of the most critical battlegrounds in their ongoing trade war. The continent, rich in natural resources, youthful populations, and emerging markets, is witnessing an intensifying competition for influence, investment, and strategic partnerships. But amid this rivalry, a pressing question arises: Can the US and China end their trade war in Africa—for the continent’s benefit, and their own?
The Roots of the Rivalry
The trade tensions between the US and China began under the Trump administration, marked by a series of tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical posturing. Although the Biden administration has shifted its rhetoric and adopted a more strategic tone, the underlying competition persists—especially in regions like Africa where both powers see long-term value.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen billions of dollars poured into African infrastructure, mining, and energy projects. In contrast, the US has sought to counterbalance this with initiatives like Prosper Africa and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, aiming to promote “high-standard” and “transparent” investments.
Africa: A Victim or a Strategic Partner?
Africa is not merely a passive arena for superpower rivalry; it is an active and increasingly assertive player. Yet, the continent often bears the brunt of US-China tensions:
- Debt traps vs. underinvestment: Critics accuse China of burdening African nations with unsustainable debt, while others argue the US hasn’t matched China’s scale or speed of investment.
- Technology and telecom wars: US efforts to block Chinese companies like Huawei from building Africa’s digital infrastructure have slowed the rollout of 5G and digital services in many regions.
- Supply chain disruptions: Trade restrictions and tariffs have affected African exports and access to affordable goods and services.
If the US and China continue their zero-sum competition, Africa risks being caught in the crossfire—economically and diplomatically.
The Case for Cooperation
There is a growing consensus that mutual cooperation in Africa could yield better outcomes than continued confrontation. Here’s why:
- Shared Interests: Both nations want political stability, economic growth, and access to African markets and resources. Joint ventures in clean energy, public health, and agriculture could serve mutual goals while supporting African development.
- Multipolar Reality: Africa is diversifying its partnerships beyond China and the US, strengthening ties with the EU, India, Russia, and the Gulf states. To remain relevant, both Washington and Beijing may find it pragmatic to cooperate rather than compete destructively.
- Continental Integration: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers an opportunity for collaborative investment in trade facilitation, logistics, and infrastructure—areas too vast and complex for any single country to dominate.
Obstacles to Ending the Trade War
Despite the case for cooperation, major barriers remain:
- Distrust and ideological differences: The US emphasizes democracy and transparency, while China promotes a model of non-interference and state-led development. These philosophical differences make alignment challenging.
- Domestic politics: Anti-China sentiment in US politics, and reciprocal suspicion in Beijing of Western intentions, fuel confrontation.
- Strategic competition: Control over critical minerals, digital infrastructure, and maritime routes will remain contentious issues.
The Road Ahead
Ending the US-China trade war in Africa will not happen overnight. But a shift from rivalry to responsible competition—or even selective collaboration—is possible. Platforms like the UN, G20, and African Union could mediate cooperative efforts, while African states can leverage their collective bargaining power to push for more balanced and transparent partnerships.
Ultimately, Africa’s prosperity should not be a casualty of global power plays. Instead, it should become the centerpiece of a new model of development diplomacy—one where global powers compete not to dominate, but to deliver the best outcomes for the continent and themselves.
