As the seven-day ultimatum set by West African leaders for the Nigerien military to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum draws to a close, critical decisions loom for both sides.
Last week, Ecowas, the regional bloc led by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, warned that the junta had one week to restore constitutional order or potentially face forceful intervention.
Sanctions have been imposed on coup leaders, and Nigeria has halted electricity supplies and closed borders, disrupting trade and access to ports in the landlocked nation.
With tensions escalating across political, diplomatic, and military spheres, let’s consider potential outcomes beyond the deadline:
Extension of Deadline:
Ecowas might prolong the ultimatum, citing diplomatic progress. While this approach could prevent a perceived retreat, it risks further straining the situation given unsuccessful mediation efforts so far.
The junta’s rhetoric intensified, cutting diplomatic ties and canceling military agreements with several nations, and President Bazoum’s plea for international help added urgency.
US aid was partially paused, highlighting growing international concern.
Agreed Transition Timetable:
To defuse tensions, the junta and Ecowas might agree on a democratic transition timeline. This could entail releasing President Bazoum and other detainees to facilitate talks.
Ecowas previously supported transitions in neighboring Sahel countries like Mali and Burkina Faso. However, success was mixed, and Sudan’s experience highlights the challenges of a civilian-military government transition.
Potential Military Intervention:
Ecowas didn’t confirm military action but left it open as an option. Nigeria mentioned military intervention as a “last resort.”
Previous instances of Ecowas military intervention, such as in The Gambia, may differ from Niger’s situation. Challenges include Niger’s size and Nigeria’s domestic security concerns.
Mali and Burkina Faso cautioned against intervention, raising regional war risks if coup leaders unite.
Calls for restraint and dialogue came from Algeria, China, Russia, and others.
Ecowas defense chiefs devised a military intervention plan, while Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin expressed readiness to contribute troops.
While Nigeria has a larger military, an invasion remains complex.
While peace is the preferred outcome, Ecowas aims to demonstrate resolve against a recent spate of coups in the region.
